By Kevin Perez

The 2019-2020 NBA season has been a wild one to say the least, but the playoffs are finally upon us. Any other word besides success would inaccurately describe the Heat’s season after indisputably defying the media’s expectations this year. Led by their all-star duo — superstar Jimmy Butler and NBA’s Most Improved Player award favorite Bam Adebayo — the Heat finished with a record of 44-29, earning the 5^th seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Before falling into a three month hiatus, riled by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Heat had one of the NBA’s best home records at 27-5, turning around what used to be a below .500 record through the previous years. 

The Heat are the NBA’s best when it comes to threes. After play resumed in the NBA’s bubble in Disney, the Heat had scored second in points per game off turnovers (20.9) and third in fast-break points per game (13.4), which are categories that they ranked 24^th and 25^th in before the hiatus. While those stats are promising, what comes after is not. The Miami Heat are statistically one of worst teams in the second half. Where the Heat rank among teams in NET RTG by quarter — 1^st: 1, 2^nd:11, 3^rd:18, 4^th:28^th along with the 1^st half: 2 and the 2^nd half: 22 — second half struggles have cost them many close games this season. With their newly set standards in the media, the team can hopefully turn around their second half play in the playoffs and get rid of what fans call the “turd quarter.”

However, the predictions of this year’s playoff go beyond scores and numbers. To understand the likelihood of success, take a look at the intricacies. 

With home-court advantage out of the question, since no fans are allowed in the bubble games, the Heat lost their season finale against the Pacers and secured the 20^th pick in next year’s draft (If they won their pick would be 25). 

In the first round of the playoffs this year the Heat (5) will face off  against the Indiana Pacers (4). They have matched up extremely well against Indiana in their four meetings this year going 3-1. Two wins before the season were stopped and 1-1 after. The Pacers will be without their all-star big man Domantas Sabonis, which gives the Heat a rebounding advantage over the Pacers — a leverage they usually do not hold against the rest of the NBA.  

One plausible outlook would be the Heat in 5. The probability of Miami winning this series is high, but they will likely drop a few games to Indiana. Led by all defensive team candidates Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, in addition to trade-acquired wing veterans Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala, Miami’s defense will bear the pillar to stand solid and allow the offense to roll. In the second round of the playoffs, the Heat will  likely face the Milwaukee Bucks, a team championing the best record in the NBA and arguably the best player right now in Giannis Antetokounmpo (assuming they get past the 8^th seed: Orlando Magic). 

During their three meetings this season, the Heat have won two games and dropped one. Their first win on October 26^th was without their best player: Jimmy Butler but keep in mind it was only the second game of the season. In their second matchup, the Heat dominated at home and won by 14, with Jae Crowder and Butler combined for 36, while the Heat’s defense limited Giannis to just 13 points off of 6-18 shootings. During their 3rd matchup, which was during the league’s 8 seeding games, the Heat lost 130-116 in a time where they did not have 2 of their best players in Butler and Goran Dragic. To add on, Bam Adebayo was in foul trouble early on, and this alone allowed Giannis and Co to take over in the 4^th.  

Another important factor in the Bucks series will be versatile forward Derrick Jones Jr’s availability after suffering a neck strain in Friday’s season finale (2-3 week recovery time). He should be available for the second round if the Heat advance.  

Another plausible outcome would skew toward Bucks in 7. There is a reason to believe that Miami can beat the Bucks — and it is because of their defense. It is that simple. The Heat are one of the only few teams that have the formula to stop Giannis, the key to beating the Bucks. They have repeatedly shown competency in their two victories over Milwaukee. Depth, following the importance of 3-point shooting, is also a major advantage to Miami as they have one of the best benches in the league. Luckily, the Heat are the NBA’s best 3-point shooting team, led by the best three point shooter this season: Duncan Robinson. 

Say the Heat does make it past the Bucks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, they will most likely face either the Toronto Raptors(2) or the Boston Celtics (3). They are 2-1 vs the Raptors and 1-2 vs the Celtics this season, holding a solid ground in beating the Raptors in comparison to going up against Boston, where the only matchup all season was the day a Jimmy Butler-less Miami took down the Celtics by a staggering 112-106 in the last meeting. This was a game played extremely well on both sides of the ball — but with there being no home-court, the Heat hauls a greater chance of beating all teams in 7. 

Still, the Ceiling and Floor holds differently. The Ceiling would be a loss in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Floor would be a second round exit. Round One of the Playoffs will begin on Tuesday for the Heat with Game 1 against the Pacers at 4PM EST. 

Despite their weary history of hitting new lows, the Heat has built up a hopeful friction among fans lately. With #HeatCulture, #HeatNation, and #LetsGoHeat trending across Twitter, the media has set their notion that this team can compete with any other player in the league and still go all the way.